It's been a little over a week since my last post. Why you may you ask? Reread the title. Despite playing generally poorly after moving up to 2c/5c NL, I have been hitting my cards again and again and again. Granted, I did have some coolers but the overall result has been running 10 buy-ins above EV. It is a welcome experience after more than my fair share of downswings in the past 50k hands. When looking at this graph, please keep in mind that 10k hands are missing close to the end because I had to reformat last weekend due to a really annoying computer problem that has only lessened in severity.
I'm at about $125 at time of writing, playing a bit of PLO 6-max, which I must say I feel I'm getting really good at. The fast-paced and aggressive nature of the game suits my personality quite well. However, I am afraid that tilt will be an inevitable factor when the swings come. It's also strange that, while I am a winning player at full ring Hold Em, I suck nutsacks at PLO full ring. I just retreat into an uber-tight shell and become totally lost on what to do with anything but the total nuts. Tne blinds end up eating me up after a long session. In 6-max, however, I can make calls with stuff like top-and-bottom two pair and bottom set. PLO is a great game in my opinion and I hope to get really good at it later on. There is hand in which I am particularly happy about how I played it.
Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players
The Official [url=http://www.twoplustwo.com/]2+2[/url] Hand Converter [url=http://www.deucescracked.com/?referrer=converter_2p2]Powered By DeucesCracked.com[/url]
[b]CO: $6.10[/b]
BTN: $1.57
Hero (SB): $3.69
[b]BB: $2.75[/b]
UTG: $1.06
[b]Pre Flop:[/b] ($0.03) Hero is SB with 7:club: T:diamond: K:spade: Q:club:
UTG calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, BTN calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.01, BB checks
[b]Flop:[/b] ($0.10) T:club: 2:diamond: T:spade: [color=blue](5 players)[/color]
Hero checks, [color=red]BB bets $0.02[/color], UTG folds, [color=red]CO raises to $0.12[/color], BTN folds, [color=red]Hero raises to $0.40[/color], [color=red]BB raises to $1.42[/color], [color=red]CO raises to $2.44[/color], Hero folds, [color=red]BB raises to $2.73 all in[/color], CO calls $0.29
I don't really know why I raised after the first raise as the raiser was a loose-passive donk and almost certainly wasn't firing air there. I think I was hoping that he had an overpair, but after the action following my 3bet, I knew there was only 1 ten left out there and both these don.ks were playing like they had it. That meant they either had TX and 22 or T2 and 22 and I made the tough decision to fold this baby. As it turns out, it was T2 and 22 but I would've hit my king on the turn.
As for my weekly strategy discussion, I want to discuss betting for protection.
Betting for Protection
As all good NLHE players know, there are only two reasons to bet according to both mathematics and game theory. They are:
1) You bet for value from a worse hand.
2) You bet as a bluff to get better hands to fold.
Different hands have different reasons for betting. For example, 85o on the AT9 rainbow flop is a complete airball, thus if you bet you are betting as a bluff as nothing worse is calling you. However, AA on the same board would qualify as a valuebet as you want calls and reraises. Some hands have value as both, but whichever one is the overarching reason should dictate your play.
But there is a third reason to bet. Mathematically incorrect. betting for protection is still a powerful part of any good player's arsenal. The reason is that you don't want to be faced with a tough decision which can either be slightly +EV or largely -EV. A good example of this is having JJ on a board of 894 when a solid opponent on the button called your raise in Middle Position after you raised UTG. Mathematics tells us clearly that betting here is a mistake as worse hands will not call you most of the time but better hands (ie, a set) will raise. However, unless you have an extremely strong read or usually physical tell on your opponent that tells you whether or not he hit his card or not (and it has to be foolproof or damned close to it), you have to bet here because if you check, your opponent will check his most likely holding (ace-X, where X is a high card) behind but an overcard (QKA) will fall on the turn or river 40% of the time, assuming he has two overcards. If you have TT here and/or he doesn't have overcards, overcards will come well over half the time.
If you check and your opponent check, say the turn comes a 2. You are almost always ahead here. But if a K comes on the turn, you are in a really tough spot. If you're out of position, you will probably bet, but a solid player will often checkraise with a bluff. Do you call? Now you can get outdrawn on the river. Or do you raise and ship your stack in on a suspicious hunch that he is bluffing? Your chances of winning if he has a K are extremely slim, even slimmer if he has a flush draw and one of your jacks is of his draw's suit. If you're in position, let's assume he checks. You bet, he calls/raises. Now what? Or what if bets? Now you're in the same spot as being out of position.
Position can make a big difference in deciding whether or not to bet for protection, which with vulnerable hands like low overpairs you should be doing pretty often. In position, you can see your opponent's moves and gestures (if in a live game). This allows you a lot more freedom in disguising the strength of your hand. Protection betting is even more important in no limit than in in limit, where betting is predictable.
Hope you enjoyed it, cheers!